Short-term load forecasting in a non-residential building contrasting models and attributes

摘要

The electric grid is evolving. Smart grids and demand response systems will increase the performance of the grid in terms of cost efficiency, resilience and safety. Accurate load forecasting is an important issue in the daily operation and control of a power system. A suitable short term load forecasting will enable a utility provider to plan the resources and also to take control measures to balance the supply and demand of electricity. The aim of this paper is to create a method to forecast the electric load in a non-residential building. Another goal is to analyse what kind of data, as weather, indoor ambient, calendar and building occupancy, is the most relevant in building load forecasting. A simple method, tested with three different models, such as MLR, MLP and SVR, is proposed. The results, from a real case study in the University of Girona, show that the proposed forecast method has high accuracy and low computational cost